This article was changed on March 1st. The online article may not match the physical copy of the Bagpipe released in late February.
This time last year, in mid- to late February, newspapers were just beginning to print about a novel coronavirus that was spreading at a rate of barely one thousand cases globally per day, as astonishing as that was at the time. Today, we see 300,000 to 500,000 cases per day, adding to a cumulative case count that will likely be beyond 112 million by the time this article goes to press.
These numbers are difficult to comprehend: they represent a measure of loss that cannot be counted. These losses have touched many local communities, begging reflection on the weight of suffering. What steps are needed to move away from desensitization and passivity toward compassionate alleviation?
Continuing in the trend of two updates written last semester, this column is an attempt to report to readers on pandemic highlights, including technological developments of treatments and vaccines, public health response and other news on the science of COVID-19. This week, I'd like to provide some brief science-backed updates and resources to understand what is being done to alleviate and recover from the pandemic that defined 2020.
The short of it: variants versus vaccines
On virus variants: Three variants of the virus that causes COVID-19 have emerged more transmissible than the original variant, but they still seem susceptible to the vaccines.
On vaccines: Two vaccines have been approved in the U.S. Both are shown to prevent COVID-19 in about 95% of cases. Several in the Covenant community already qualify based on age and occupation.
On virus variants
Viral illnesses are not new to humans. In fact, many of us have experienced one or multiple of the following illnesses caused by viruses: chickenpox, the flu, mononucleosis ("mono"), stomach flu, mumps, and shingles. While this list isn't comprehensive, it gives the idea that viruses come with great variety. Some viruses, such as MERS-CoV, smallpox, and ebola, are very deadly, with 30% mortality or more. Other viruses, such as those that cause the common cold, are relatively harmless. Virus infectivity also varies greatly, as demonstrated by a New York Times graph.
(Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/18/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-coronavirus-outbreak.html)
In addition to fatality rate and infectivity, the way a viral disease impacts the body can also vary widely. Some viruses cause skin disease, such as measles and chickenpox. Others cause lung disease, such as COVID-19, influenza, and viral pneumonia. These variables characterize each disease and lead to the measures meant to stop them from spreading.
Additionally, all viruses are subject to change over time. These changes are random genetic alterations that usually result in no change in the behavior of the virus. However, occasionally these variants behave differently. The CDC reports that three important variants of the novel coronavirus have been discovered so far. Current tracking measures suggest that these variants are more transmissible (contagious) than the variant currently more widely distributed in the U.S.
A more transmissible variant could lead to increased pressure on health systems, which is of chief concern because this could lead to more hospitalizations and deaths. The more a virus replicates—the more infections it causes—the more likely it is to mutate. In order to reduce the likelihood of more harmful variants emerging, it is important to reduce the number of infections through masking, distancing, testing and vaccinating.
The World Health Organization, the CDC and other organizations are closely watching for the emergence of new variants and how these variants behave in response to public health measures. The three variants mentioned seem to still be susceptible to COVID-19 vaccines, which is good news in the fight against COVID-19.
On vaccines
According to the New York Times' Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker, ten vaccines for COVID-19 are currently being used worldwide. Four of these are approved for full use and six for limited use in select countries. The FDA has approved two vaccines to be used in the U.S. under Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), a status applied by the presidentially-appointed FDA Commissioner. EUA is usually declared in an emergency to approve a developing medical product for use against imminent chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear threat agents.
The first vaccine approved under EUA in the U.S. was "Comirnaty" developed by Pfizer and BioNTech. The second was developed by Moderna, Inc. Both were approved just one week apart in mid-December. In clinical trials both demonstrated about 95% efficacy for preventing sickness from COVID-19.
The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are both mRNA vaccines. The genetic material called mRNA in these vaccines are instructions. These instructions tell the body to build a defense against the virus that causes COVID-19. Neither vaccine actually contains coronavirus particles, so neither can give you the disease.
While the technology for making mRNA vaccines has not been around as long as other vaccine technologies, it has been thoroughly trialed for potential use in vaccines. According to the CDC, mRNA vaccine technology has been explored for other viral illnesses, including influenza, Zika, and rabies. Because mRNA can be produced in a laboratory once the genetic makeup of the virus is known, mRNA vaccines can be developed and upscaled in relatively short time. COVID-19 mRNA vaccines were able to be produced in less than a year, partially because this developing technology facilitates a shorter timeline but also because billions of dollars have backed the production of these vaccines.
Between these two vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, NPR reports that roughly 12% of the U.S. population has received the first dose of the vaccine. About 5% are fully vaccinated for COVID-19, having received their second dose. President Biden is on track to deliver his promised 100 million vaccine shots within his first 100 days in office.
Readers may wonder when they can get the vaccine. While the CDC has issued vaccine rollout recommendations, each state has adopted its own protocol determining who to vaccinate first. According to the Tennessee government's phased priority plan, frontline health workers, dependent disabled adults, and those older than 70 are receiving the vaccine first due to high risk of exposure or high risk of severe illness. By March, those with a disabling, chronic, or immune-compromising illness should be able to get the vaccine. In the months following, there is reason to hope that Tennesseans in public services such as mass transit will qualify for the vaccine.
For more information on caseload and vaccines, here are two helpful pages:
From the New York Times, "Coronavirus World Map: Tracking the Global Outbreak," an interactive case tracker, and "Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout: State by State."